Tonight (January 29) marks the annual homelessness census, conducted on one night each January across the United States. This “point-in-time” count provides an annual snapshot of homelessness; its estimates provided the baseline for a report we released this past August, Homelessness in Greater Boston: Trends in the Context of Our Broader Housing Crisis. A challenge with this valuable data set is the considerable time lag before it becomes available. That August 2024 report, for instance, relied on data from January 2023, and the results from tonight’s count won’t be released until later this year.

In this research brief, we update some of the analysis from our earlier report using newly available data from January 2024. While already a year old, the data confirm what many had suspected—that homelessness had risen sharply into early 2024, likely driven by an increase in migrant families fleeing hardship abroad. Specifically, the number of people experiencing homelessness in Greater Boston rose by an estimated 67 percent between January 2023 and January 2024.

At the state level, Massachusetts experienced one of the most significant increases in homelessness nationwide, as highlighted in an analysis by The Boston Globe. While the statewide rise was smaller than the rise in Greater Boston, it still far exceeded the 18 percent increase observed across the U.S. overall.

One of the key findings from our August report was that while Greater Boston had a relatively high share of people experiencing homelessness, a large number of them were at least in some form of shelter, rather than living on the street. The newly available 2024 data reflect a continuation of this trend. As the figure depicts, overall homelessness increased dramatically, but most of the increase found space in shelters.

Given that the state scaled back its Right-to-Shelter law and capped capacity at 7,500 families, one might have expected a significant rise in the number of people living without shelter. However, it’s important to understand the timing of the data. The Point-in-Time Counts analyzed in this report were collected just a few months after the state reached its shelter capacity limit in October 2023 and before additional restrictions, such as time limits on shelter stays, were implemented in April and July 2024. Moreover, during this period, the state was still taking extraordinary measures, including sheltering some families at Logan Airport. Because of this timing, the data do not reflect any increases in unsheltered homelessness that may have occurred later in 2024. To gain a clearer picture of these potential changes, we will need to wait for the January 2025 Point-in-Time Count data, expected to be released in late 2025.

The newly released data do provide us with an opportunity to look at where the counts of people experiencing homelessness were increasing by early 2024. Geographically, much of the 2023–2024 increase has occurred outside of Boston proper, as illustrated in the graph below. This trend likely reflects the fact that most of the additional shelter capacity—e.g., rented hotel rooms—were established outside of the city of Boston as part of state efforts to manage overflow from Boston. A closer examination of the five Continuums of Care (CoCs) in Greater Boston (the regional networks of homeless service providers) would provide further clarity on which areas are driving these increases.

Finally, we take a look at a few data points that illustrate who is experiencing this increase in homelessness. The 2024 data show a sharp rise in homelessness among families and children. People in families (as opposed to individuals) make up almost all of the increase in homelessness between 2023 and 2024. When we look at homelessness rates by age group for 2023 versus 2024, we find that youth under 18 experienced the highest increase, with the homelessness rate for youth in Greater Boston increasing by 72 percent. This is a concerning development, as the long-term impacts of housing instability on children—ranging from educational setbacks to health challenges—can be profound.

The new year of data also shows worsening disparities in homelessness rates by race. The rate of homelessness for the Black population in Greater Boston is about 17 times the rate for the White population. The Latino population has a rate about 5 times the White population. We expect this trend might reflect demographics of the newly arrived migrants seeking shelter in Massachusetts, though the data don't allow us to analyze or confirm that.

This updated analysis, building on findings from our August report, underscores the complexities of homelessness in Greater Boston. While Boston has the second-highest rate of homelessness among major U.S. cities, it also boasts one of the lowest rates of unsheltered homelessness—just 4 percent compared to the national average of 35 percent. Chronic homelessness here is also less than half the national average, largely due to a robust shelter system and Massachusetts’ unique right-to-shelter law for families. Recent policy rollbacks, however, and mounting family homelessness demand our attention and action now more than ever.

Rising homelessness is but one manifestation of our region’s continued housing challenge. Greater Boston’s housing crisis is deeply rooted in policies that have driven up housing costs and created other barriers that make it exceedingly difficult for lower-income families to find safe, stable, and affordable housing. While the region’s opportunities attract people seeking work, stability, and refuge, its history of exclusionary zoning and expensive housing development has exacerbated inequities. A comprehensive strategy to address homelessness requires more than expanding critically needed shelter capacity; it also calls for a liberalization of land use laws and significant investments in affordable housing to ensure housing stability and opportunity for all residents.

Read Indicators' August 2024 report brief: Housing and Homelessness in Greater Boston.

Read more from Boston Indicators.